ASSESSMENT OF THE INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE RATE OF GROSS DOMESTIC SAVINGS

Abstract

The level of gross domestic savings in Armenia from the 1990s to 2003 was negative, but in the last almost two decades it has become positive, but not so high as to narrow the resource gap. In this research paper we have investigated factors that affect the rate of gross domestic saving using secondary annual data for the period 1993-2020. The data used here was taken from the World Bank database. We considered six groups of macro-economic factors: the depth of the financial system, monetary and fiscal policy, income, external and demographic. To assess the long-term and short-term determinants of national savings, the ARDL model was used. The results of the study revealed that per capita GDP, foreign direct investment, inflation, personal remittances, received and real interest rates have positive effect on gross domestic saving while broad money (M2), age dependency ratio, domestic credit to private sector and deposit interest rate influencing negatively to national savings of the country. Based on the results, it is recommended that the Government of the Republic of Armenia adopt appropriate policies to encourage savings in order to mobilize domestic resources and narrow the resource gap between gross domestic savings and gross fixed capital formation, and stimulate investment.

Based on the results, it is recommended that the Government and the Central Bank adapt their policy strategies to the new realities of uncertainty in the implementation of new industrial and infrastructure projects in developing countries due to the global sharp decline in FDI flows, leading to the fact that domestic savings became dominant to overcoming the resource gap.